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Roulette forums best betting patternXXIX 1, February 2013 © 2013 Arnold Snyder Roulette Culture The most surprising thing for a blackjack player about the transition to roulette is the culture shock.
Blackjack has had a few staid decades now since the transition to corporate casinos and shoe games and auto-peek devices.
But roulette is like going back to the days when dealers peeked and Mickey MacDougall had to be at the table to protect Thorp from card mechanics.
The thing to remember is that those were also the golden days before had been published, when the handful of people who had figured out how to beat the game had the opportunities all to themselves.
One way that roulette differs from modern blackjack is that at most U.
Casinos are universally strict about procedures for roulette payouts.
But everything else is up for grabs.
These dealers seem to have no awareness at all that many players prefer to bet after the spin and that this is a long-standing tradition in the game.
Dealers who wave off right after the spin seem to have no clue that action roulette players will keep chunking out chips on the layout as long as roulette forums best betting pattern are allowed to, and that dealers who wave off such players ten or twelve spins out are costing the house money.
Inexplicably, the house allows this.
Some dealers spin the wheel by giving the rotor edge a light nudge with their fingertips; other dealers grab a fret the divider between pockets and shove it to boost wheel speed.
Dealers are allowed to spin the wheel at any speed they want, even when the wheel speed is causing the ball to fly out of the wheel and off the table repeatedly during their shifts.
No one in the pit seems to care about delaying the game to hunt down the ball and respin.
When players at the table typically Europeans complain about the wheel speed, they are ignored.
To summarize, in the U.
To get an idea of how bizarre the lack of procedural uniformity is for U.
Some dealers would be dealing one deck of a six-deck shoe, others would be dealing three decks, and others would be dealing every last card to the bottom.
Some dealers would deal the game face up, while others, at their own discretion, would allow players to pick up the cards with one or both hands.
Think of what it would be like if every dealer was permitted to design his own shuffling procedure, or just move the cards from the discard tray into the dealing shoe without a shuffle whenever he felt like it.
That would be the rough equivalent of roulette as it currently exists in the U.
This article will focus on roulette as dealt in the U.
Squares who get to Vegas only once or twice in a lifetime bet birthdays, anniversaries and other lucky numbers—typically one chip per number.
It never occurs to such players to team up on a number and give the dealer something to aim at.
These players bet before the spin and sit there placidly, waiting for luck to strike them or not—the ideal casino customers.
They play small and, when their buy-ins are gone, they leave the table.
Hard core roulette players, by contrast, not only stack up their chips on a sector for the express purpose of giving the dealer something to aim at, but expect the dealer to deliver.
I get the feeling from European roulette players that dealers in Europe are more widely competent at steering than dealers in the U.
European players get really pissed off when with bestes novoline online casino agree dealer seems unable to hit a big sector.
But usually one of these players will concede the battle fairly quickly, so everyone can team up and avoid diluting their results.
They all want to be in on the win if the dealer should start to aim.
One reason they never do is because they bet too big of a sector or too many sectors for any dealer, no matter how skilled, to hit frequently enough to be able to overcome the house edge on all those bets.
Another reason such players lose is because it never seems to occur to them that what the dealer giveth, either through luck or skill, the dealer will soon taketh away.
After these players get a few hits, they stack the chips higher or spread out on more numbers, and they quickly give their winnings back, plus some.
Action roulette players seem comfortable with this arrangement.
All they seem to expect is that the dealer will give them a decent amount of play and excitement for their money—significantly more play and excitement than they are likely to get without help at a game with a house edge of 5.
At casinos or on shifts or in pits where virtually all of the dealers do seem to follow a strict house dealing procedure, or where none of them can steer, a crowd of hardcore action roulette regulars never seems to form.
The Debate Over Roulette Dealer Signature and Steering As I mentioned above, hardcore roulette players tend to believe that dealers can steer the ball to the area around a desired number.
This belief is shared by many dealers and casino personnel.
Casino management consultants and gambling experts, on the other hand, have almost universally denied the possibility.
I once heard a lady friend of mine ask a croupier in a Las Vegas casino if he could drop the ball into any slot he wished.
Doc Winters, an old-time crooked Roulette dealer, could even drop the ball into any six-numbered section he desired.
But this can only be done by spinning wheel and ball in the same direction and using a wheel that has no obstacles.
You can guard against this sort of cheating by not placing your bets until after wheel and ball are spinning, just before the croupier announces that no further bets are allowed.
No croupier can ever consciously influence, even in the slightest degree, the ultimate destination of the ball as it circles the roulette wheel.
Indeed, no croupier can get it into even a predesignated half of the wheel, let alone into 1, 2, or 3 favored numbers.
Barnhart goes on to quote Alois Szabo, one of the people at the meeting: In theory it seems not impossible that an adroit croupier with tremendous experience might succeed in directing the ball according to his wish, but he could do so only if he could spin as he wanted and if there were no obstacles to divert the ball on the border of the roulette machine.
Szabo goes on to say that numerous roulette dealers had told him that directing the ball was impossible.
Ironically, Barnhart says later in consider, best number to choose for roulette shall book that he believes in dealer signature the unconscious creation of an exploitable pattern in spin results, based on fixed dealing habitswhich strikes me as illogical.
In any case Barnhart refers to Stephen Kimmel as a recent proponent of the idea of unconscious dealer signature.
Kimmel suggested scouting for dealer signature by looking for a series of results a similar number of pockets apart.
Barnhart says many more spins than that would be required.
I will quickly point out that the number of trials required to ascertain exploitable dealer signature would depend on how strong the signature was—a weaker pattern of results would require more results to confirm an exploitable signature than a strong, consistent pattern of results.
He writes that for dealer signature to be exploitable three factors must be consistent from spin to spin: rotor speed, ball revolutions, and the position of the rotor at ball launch.
Thorp also provides a formula for statistical analysis of roulette that has since become key in the arguments of all gambling experts who maintain that dealer steering and signature cannot occur.
Now take the square world best systems of 822, which is 28.
Thorp provides a table that shows the rate of return given various root mean square errors "Typical Error E".
This table is reproduced below.
Percent Advantage Betting on Best: Typical Error E No.
My own observation is that the dealer error in the number of revolutions for the ball spin is about 20 pockets for the more consistent dealers; it is much larger with a less consistent one.
He believes, based on his own observation and data, that the variance in dealer ball spin, wheel speed, ball launching point and ball roll upon entering the rotor will be too high for the dealer to roulette forums best betting pattern steer the ball or have an exploitable dealing signature.
Juggling, golfing, typing, what so different about learning to section shoot versus many other difficult eye-to-hand manipulative skills?
The answer lies in the limits of human capabilities.
Has anyone ever learned to juggle 100 balls, hit nothing but holes-in-one, type 500 words a minute?
On the first revolution the error may only be a half-pocket; after the second revolution, experience has shown that the error can jump to one pocket, then two, then four, and so on.
As you increase the revolutions, a significant margin of error compounds.
Another factor regarding the alleged skill, and, curiously, one that many seem to overlook, is that section shooting is an act comprised of three questionably attainable skills, not just one, and they must occur simultaneously.
Compare these actions to those of professional bowlers, golfers, pool players, and similar athletes.
They only aim once and can take as much time as they want to warm up, evaluate, and calculate their actions.
He stresses that this information is based on discussion with many experts who have told him that drop and roll and bounce characteristics of wheels are highly variable from day to day.
Barnhart quotes Szabo saying that dealer steering would bring ruin to all the casinos of the world.
Darwin Ortiz, in his "Letter Regarding Nevada Roulette" Blackjack Forum Vol.
I've met people whose brother-in-law can do it.
I've even met people who could do it on every day except the day that I happened to meet them.
But I have yet to meet one dealer face-to-face who could reliably do it when challenged by me.
Dealers would, indeed, have used their talents at every opportunity to bankrupt the house roulette forums best betting pattern helping agents win.
Our research led to a couple of Cuban dealers who worked together in a major casino.
This was no surprise, since the best roulette dealers in the world come from Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.
Having spent time in the casinos of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, and having watched the Cuban dealers work here in the states, I can vouch for their incredible mastery of and dedication to the wheel.
With a combined 75 years of dealing experience between them, both in Cuba and in the U.
He does take care to limit this claim to dealers on the old-fashioned, deep-pocket wheels, of which there were a number still in action at the time his article was written: How can anybody cheat at roulette?
Well, first of all let me qualify the statement by saying that not all Nevada casinos cheat.
Some casinos run a fair game.
They use modern wheels which tend to yield truly random results.
However, other casinos still use older style equipment which is quite beatable.
Why would a casino use beatable equipment when modern non-beatable equipment is available?
So, to sum up the case against dealer steering or signature we have the argument that there will always be too much variance in ball speed, rotor speed, and ball drop and roll for steering or exploitable signature to be possible.
According to section-shooting detractors, part of this variance will be due to the design of the wheel itself, with its deflectors in the path of the ball as it crosses the apron to the rotor.
Part of this variance may be caused by dealing procedures that require the dealer to launch the ball in alternating directions or vary rotor speed on each spin or perform a blind roulette forums best betting pattern without looking at the wheel during the launch.
Part may be due to simple human https://oilfieldchili.com/best/best-bovada-slots.html limitations.
More variance may be due to the effects of weather and other physical conditions on wheel and ball behavior.
And finally there is the argument that none of the experts have seen a dealer with such skills, and that if such skills actually existed the casinos would all be broke.
My Response to the Debate on Roulette Dealer Steering and Signature I will first address the claims that variance is inevitably too high to allow dealer signature or steering.
As Thorp pointed out, variance in ball landing results can come from variance in dealer ball launch, variance in launch location relative to the rotor, variance in rotor speed, and variance in drop or ball roll after the drop.
I will address each type of variance separately.
XII 2, June 1992—link at the upper leftdescribed as follows in his article: There are two procedures that effectively stop any possibility of the roulette section shooting or steering myth from becoming a reality.
Instead a dealer may rely on timing for his launch, or a fixed set of ball pick-up and launch acts carried out the same way, with the same timing, every spin.
At one casino on the Las Vegas Strip where I believe we observed dealer steering to agents, there was a house policy in place that required dealers to do a blind spin.
The policy was apparent in the dealers' behavior, and I was able to confirm it with casino personnel there.
The dealers adjusted the wheel speed, then looked away from the wheel while feeling for the ball with their fingertips.
When their fingertips made contact with the ball, they picked up the ball and launched it with a fixed routine.
They were able to maintain a remarkable consistency of launch position relative to the ball pick-up point with no visual cue, based solely on consistent timing.
XXVIII 1, October 2012—link at the upper left the length of ball spin merely sets the length of time the wheel will be rotating before the ball drops onto the rotor.
The speed of the rotor determines how much of the wheel will pass any given point during that amount of time.
This makes it impossible for a dealer, no matter how skilled, to hit a single target sector of consecutive numbered pockets every spin.
But because wheels tend to have drops caused usually by tilt, sometimes by wearthe variance in results is often not too great to eliminate the possibility of gaining an edge from steering.
Based on my data, I believe that the changes that experts say they have observed are mostly due to normal, ongoing variance in the drop unrelated to weather and external conditions.
The exception would be when there is a sudden rapid change in barometric pressure.
Regarding variance in rotor speed Let me just say that we have clocked wheels—that is, taken measurements of their speed using reliable instruments—sufficiently to confirm that some dealers are able to maintain a consistent rotor speed if they choose, or hit a chosen rotor speed consistently.
Regarding house requirements to vary the speed of the rotor First, as I have mentioned at the beginning of this article, very few U.
But even at casinos where a fixed dealing procedure seems to be enforced at least on some shiftswe have found roulette dealers who are able to steer the ball using various combinations of wheel speed and ball speed.
If you are forced to change speed each spin, you can compensate for the changed speed by changing ball speed or launch location relative to the rotor.
In fact, one of the ways we confirm that a dealer is steering the ball is by watching for the dealer to use these factors in multiple combinations to achieve a specific goal.
We see this type of kindly dealer all the time in casinos, when the players have all joined together in betting the area around the 17, for example.
I can't discuss all of these disagreements within this article because casino personnel will be reading but, for example, I disagree with the way Thorp measures ball roll as well as other factors.
One problem I can discuss briefly in this article lies in the calculation of mean error terms.
You will never find such a wheel—this example is simplified to make it easy to follow.
It would also be unhelpful to calculate that the average roll was 22 pockets, with an error term of 21 pockets.
Average roll might be a relevant factor if the roll was as likely to roll any number of pockets between 3 and 41, but if the actual rolls center around 3 pockets and 41 pockets, with a large gap of pockets mostly unhit, then using the average roll as a factor in this calculation is not helpful.
Nor do you have to regard the average roll as 14 ½ pockets, with an error term of 11 ½ pockets.
A sector for a particular wheel could be a couple of adjacent numbers and another number twelve pockets away.
Optimal betting sectors can take on many different configurations on modern wheels spun at modern speeds.
There are similar problems with error visit web page measurement for other factors in Thorp's formula.
And what about the argument that all casinos would go broke in a year?
For example, it would be difficult for a dealer who was trying to learn to steer to know whether a bad result was due to variance or to his poor skill.
He would lack the kind of consistent feedback most people need to learn.
And any dealer who could steer would be restrained in the use of his skill by the rational desire to extract the maximum possible lifetime gain from his hard-won skill rather than burn out a great play in a couple of sessions for a much smaller total win.
Also, card mechanics of varying skills have worked at blackjack tables for as long as the game has been dealt, and many have used these skills for decades without putting the casinos where they work out of business.
Cheaters who have spent years developing special skills have no desire to kill the golden goose.
Another limit on how much a skilled dealer can take from roulette in a short time if he is concerned about avoiding discovery is the behavior of the average roulette player.
No gambler at roulette who actually manages to get ahead ever seems to please click for source with his winnings.
Instead, what they do is continue playing until their winnings and buy-in are gone, plus any other amounts they may have available for buy-ins.
In other words, they play until they run out of money, and all they really hope for, if they believe in dealer steering, is for the dealer to give them a longer playing time.
People want some fun for their money.
So a dealer who is steering for an agent, and who is concerned about getting enough money out of other players to keep up appearances, probably has natural limits on how fast he can extract money from the game.
Again, players who lose their money quickly at a roulette table tend to leave that table quickly.
We have seen what we believed to be dealers steering against players in three kinds of situations.
How I Came to Believe that Roulette Dealers Can Steer I came to believe that a small percentage of dealers can steer well enough to get an edge at roulette by sitting at the table of a particular dealer and recording enough spin results to ascertain that his frequency of hitting a particular sector had gone beyond three standard deviations.
We were at a large Strip casino one week when we observed what we believed were possible signs of a biased wheel.
Specifically, the ball was landing in a small sector of the wheel too often for it to be likely that it was due to chance.
We sat at the table placing even-money bets and recorded the results of enough spins to reliably calculate that the edge on betting the sector would be roughly 20%.
All of this play was on are best way to win money roulette excited same shift, and almost all of it was against the same dealer.
Some of the play was against a relief dealer.
Then we returned to the casino for one last session of data collection—this time on a different shift.
To our surprise, the results for that session, when taken alone, indicated no bias whatsoever.
We went back to record more data against dealers other than our original dealer, and none of it showed a bias.
We went back to observe our original dealer over the next year or so, and we learned a lot about roulette by observing him.
With time we found a collection of dealers we believed could steer.
We could often tell whether a dealer was steering before we even got to the table just by observing her behavior as we walked around the casino.
Occasionally it would seem to us as we returned to one of these dealers that we had arrived in the middle of a play.
All details have been changed to protect any players and dealers described in this article.
He was betting a small sector and doing well, with the ball landing in his sector at an unusually high rate.
Participants make eye contact for no seeming reason, and then sustain it for an unusual length of time.
He had the seat next to the wheel, but he never looked at the wheel.
The player left a few spins later.
At another casino, after observing what we believed were multiple occasions of dealer steering for agents, we saw a steering dealer engaged in what we believed was a deliberate phrase. best casino in dallas tx join of a player.
We had observed him playing many times, always using the same system.
He seemed to have a few preferred dealers at the casino, and every time we saw him playing one of them, he would get a long play on his buy-in.
But on this occasion, the dealer appeared to be steering against him from the very first spin.
The reason we believed this dealer was steering against this player was because he used a different set of wheel and ball speed combinations than he used during the plays when we believed he was steering for a player.
This player bought in multiple times for large amounts and lost it all quickly.
It was a massacre.
Early in our roulette learning process we ran into a dealer off-Strip who appeared to be steering for the players on his table.
We started to bet on the target numbers, but click the following article after we had a read on the spin to confirm that the dealer was still steering.
He made these kinds of comments for the next few spins.
I was not comfortable with the situation.
After one spin, our read indicated that the optimal bet was outside of the former target sector.
Again, though I could tell you more stories of this type, this kind of thing is not the norm.
And, although we ran into other situations in which dealers appeared to be steering, we did not rely on the appearance of steering to determine whether steering was possible and exploitable in casinos.
To determine whether or not a particular dealer could steer, we collected data.
All other methods of beating the game are either illegal or very difficult, requiring much research, scouting and practice.
Betting on dealers who are steering is potentially the easiest way to beat the game if you can learn to identify dealers with that capability and learn how to tell when they are turning the steering on and off.
Further, observing dealers who are steering is the best way to learn visual prediction methods that will actually work on the modern game.
The easiest way to do these things is by learning to read dealer tells.
First, assume that the game is rigged which it is and that an experienced dealer can hit a section with alarming accuracy.
Next, develop an act such that the dealers can't stand the sight of your face and start pre-betting sections with 25-cent chips.
Now, though I do not recommend the specific tactics suggested by Scott, I can confirm that roulette tell play works.
In early 1986, I served as an expert witness for the defense in a case where a blackjack dealer had been accused of colluding with a player.
When I reviewed the surveillance tapes of the dealer, it was clear to me that the dealer was not colluding with an agent, but simply had a strong unconscious tell that any player could https://oilfieldchili.com/best/casino-slots-best-payout.html />Everyone in the courtroom spent the next ten minutes watching video of the dealer and correctly guessing her hole card.
Tells tend to vary a lot from dealer to dealer anyway—they did in blackjack, and they do at roulette.
Suffice it to say that a dealer who is attempting to steer for players and feels confident in his ability to help them win money tends to exhibit behaviors that are different from the average roulette dealer.
Similarly, a dealer who has steered some hits to players but who has decided to take the money back has significant changes in appearance and behavior.
These feelings often show up as tells and can be used as indicators of when to get in or out of the game.
Roulette tell play only works if a dealer is consciously steering for you, but if he suspects even a little that you are aware that he can steer, he will usually end the steering immediately.
Camouflage is essential at all times!
The other thing to remember is that even if a dealer is rooting for the players and steering for the players, at some point the dealer will stop.
Friendly dealers seem to enjoy giving customers a few big roulette forums best betting pattern />Again, this only occurs with a small percentage of dealers.
I suggest you read by Dog-Ass Johnny Blackjack Forum Volume VIII 2, Roulette forums best betting pattern 1988 —to get an idea of how to keep dealers rooting for you, understand when they are rooting for or against someone else, and get the hell out when their good will disappears.
Forte preferred looking for ghost tells between a dealer and a big player who had already established a friendly relationship with the dealer that usually included liberal tipping.
That works at roulette as well.
Be friendly, complimentary; toss him a tip on your first hit.
Dealer hatred tells work best when they are ghost tells and the disliked players are really covering the felt, leaving only smallish groups of consecutive numbers without bets on them—something for the dealer to aim for—and where you can get some money down after the spin.
And tip when he hits you!
For example, I once had a terrific opportunity for tell play at a large Strip casino where an experienced female dealer was trying to cope with a group of obnoxious French players.
They even exhaled smoke directly into her face.
Where do his eyes normally look… immediately before and after spinning the ball?
How about near the end of the spin?
When does he normally wave players off?
Would a dealer make a comment like that… if he knew he was steering for me?
Absence can be a key word.
Your first hint of an exploitable opportunity will always be some small behavior out of the norm.
For the most part, every tell you read on best numbers to play on roulette table is clear and easy to learn.
When you look for these same tells in a casino, they will be extremely subtle, disguised and at first seem almost invisible.
The best way to begin learning tells is to get into the casino and observe.
Walk up to a game and get a feel for the level of involvement.
Then any time you see the dealer deviate from his normal behavior, force yourself to try to find the motive behind the action.
What exactly is the information that is available to everyone?
The entire spectrum of subconsciously generated human behavior that takes place anytime you put a dealer behind a roulette table, pay him minimum wage so that he really must earn his living from tokes, treat him like dirt, have a pit boss sweat the game, then bring in the players who want to win so bad they can taste it.
Skilled tell players simply exploit these facets of human behavior and turn this information into an advantage… To learn more about reading dealer tells, even books on poker tells will be helpful.
One important point made by Navarro is that while some tells are fairly common and usually mean the same thing, other tells are unique to a person, or can mean opposite things depending on how a person feels about a given situation.
And remember that you need two sets of tells—one that lets you know that the dealer is capable of steering, and another that lets you know whether or not he is steering right now, either for or against you.
That first tell is critical, and you will be better off if you can confirm it over time with some hard data.
Another thing to remember about any form of tell play is that you can expect your ratio of scouting time to playing time to https://oilfieldchili.com/best/rip-and-pip-leave-casinodaddy.html very high—in the hole card scouting-to-playing range, or higher.
Skilled hole card players may spend twelve hours scouting for every hour playing.
Once you have a collection of reliable tell dealers, your scouting time will go down, but you still have to find the dealers in situations that are good for tell play.
Lastly, you need to keep in mind that no dealer can steer the ball to a target number or sector on every spin.
A roulette dealer who has spent many hours on a wheel will know a lot more about the normal variance in the drop than you can find out without many hours of clocking the wheel.
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